100% electric coach

Jim Blackwood · January 18, 2019, 02:39:37 PM

It'll be awhile before the technology is mature, and the early adopters will be the ones to pay for the development curve. Smart money will leave it alone until it becomes more profitable to use it than not. That'll be awhile.

Jim

windtrader · January 18, 2019, 05:44:39 PM

Well, $7,500 help ease getting on board early. Hope the credit gets renewed.

kyle4501 · January 19, 2019, 06:41:30 AM

Electric vehicles have very different cost to maintain.
While I see lots of discussion about how bad fossil fuels are, I don't see much discussion about the total environmental cost of making the batteries and keeping them charged. What about the cost of dealing with the dead batteries?

I own a hybrid - the cost of replacing the battery is more than the gas saved - IF the battery lasts 100,000 miles AND gas is $4/ gallon. (from what I have been told by the service department, most do not last that long and avg fuel mileage drops significantly long before)

Another concern I have is the durability of the electronic controls - 20 years is a very long time for things that sensitive to corrosion.

The biggest problem will be getting a service department that can actually repair these new systems vs treating them as disposable.

I'm not opposed to the new technology, But I am opposed to misleading marketing and false promises.

I remember the hype of solar electricity in the 70's -vs- the reality.

pabusnut · January 19, 2019, 09:06:27 AM

Kyle,

I totally agree with you on the cost/investment.

Also what is the MACRO impact to the planet CO2 from the manufacture of a new car vs driving the same one for an average number of miles per year.
What is the impact of me driving my car for the next 10 years, vs manufacturing 3 new electric cars for me during that time? and how many batteries?
Nobody wants to discuss this.

I disagree with giving a $7500 credit to someone who is buying a $80-100K electric car. Does it really incentivize the average man to consider an electric car? Kind-of. There should be a cutoff amount where Uber Luxury doesn't qualify--$50K & over-- or it is gradually reduced.

The credit should be given after you can prove you are the original owner and have kept the car for 4 years---then see how committed you are to the environment!

Just my random engineer ramblings.

Steve

chessie4905 · January 19, 2019, 10:39:18 AM

Still, your $7500 credit comes from tax payers pockets.😠

pabusnut · January 19, 2019, 11:44:44 AM

Yes-- I do disagree w/$7500--but if you are going to give it, make sure that it is to someone who is committed!

windtrader · January 19, 2019, 12:13:41 PM

FYI - the credit applies to all electric only cars, cheap and expensive alike. The 2018 Smart Fortwo Electric Drive lists for $24,650. $17,000 after the credit. Seems pretty appealing to get one to jump now. https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/cheapest-electric-cars

There is insufficient field data to establish the long term reliability, maintenance costs, durability, depreciation, etc. but there are fewer components to require maintenance. However, we all know little electronic boxes and parts have a way of costing way more than seems reasonable and know high tech products become obsolete quickly and depreciate quickly.

For the right profile, an electric is a no brainer today, for others, it may never make sense.

All new technology comes with bags of concerns, questions, naysayers, etc., just the nature of change. Will just have to live, watch, and adopt with the changes as they arrive.

Jim Blackwood · January 19, 2019, 12:45:50 PM

The early adopter needs to be something of a gambler. There is no way of knowing the hidden and unforseen costs until afterwards, and in most high tech products these costs can be prohibitive initially, that is, had they been known in advance which they never are, or at least are never admitted.

Which is nothing new, bleeding edge technology has always had the tendency to cut you badly. This is no different. Much more prudent to wait until the field has stabilized, costs have come down, and a track record has been proven. That'll be awhile yet.

Jim

windtrader · January 19, 2019, 01:35:17 PM

"This is no different. Much more prudent to wait until the field has stabilized, costs have come down, and a track record has been proven."

Each person assesses their personal conditions and situation then decides how to proceed that is in their best interest, there is no one size fits all answer. I can tell you from personal experience it was a no-brainer for commuters in Silicon Valley to lease a Nissan Leaf for a hundred bucks a month and shaving an hour off their commute by gaining access to the HOV lanes. If you are retired living in the country it would not be appealing at all.

chessie4905 · January 19, 2019, 05:31:12 PM

Then you have to deal with these issues.

https://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-ln-clean-air-car-decals-20180917-story.html

Oonrahnjay · January 21, 2019, 05:12:07 PM

Quote from: pabusnut on January 19, 2019, 09:06:27 AMKyle,

I totally agree with you on the cost/investment.

Me too.

Quote from: pabusnut on January 19, 2019, 09:06:27 AMAlso what is the MACRO impact to the planet CO2 from the manufacture of a new car vs driving the same one for an average number of miles per year.
What is the impact of me driving my car for the next 10 years, vs manufacturing 3 new electric cars for me during that time? and how many batteries?
Nobody wants to discuss this. ..
Steve

People don't want to discuss many realities. I drive an '03 Jetta TDI wagon (bought to replace an '02 TDI sedan bought new in '02 but was wrecked by a drunk running from the cops). I got a $30,000 credit on my VW. It's about to turn over 500,000 miles, and I've averaged close to 53 MPG overall (I kept receipts for every drop of fuel that went into the tank). Here's how I got my $30,000 "credit".

If I'd bought the same car with a gasoline engine, I'd have paid about $70,000 for fuel (based on the same offset for beating the EPA rating that I did on the diesel, plus a penalty for the extra cost of diesel after EPA imposed new requirements on diesel fuel). I actually paid $40,000 so far, don't forget I have receipts. About 350,000 miles, I figured that I saved enough to refund the cost of the vehicle in '02, about $20,000. Since then, I tell people that VW gave me a car for free. The extra $10,000 "Credit" I put in my pocket.

No batteries required, minimal electronics, very little maintenance - most of which I've done myself.

But it's a "bad car - dirty, petroleum-driven" -- when the environ-mentalist's get their power for free, and it's "clean" of course. I got a big old fat hairy redneck a$# that they can kiss. Or if they wake up and want to buy my car, they're welcome to it -- just make my widow a reasonable offer.

Oonrahnjay · January 21, 2019, 05:12:42 PM

Not that I got any strong feelings about all this stupidity, of course. (And I haven't even got started on paying them $7500 of my money for their overgrown little golf cars.)

pabusnut · January 22, 2019, 04:08:42 AM

Bruce,

My '04 is a low mileage Jetta TDI--only 260K-- my diesel Jeep Liberty is practically new--97K !

As an engineer, I look at life cycle cost-- that includes the production cost of breakdowns. The Jetta has now been towed once for brakes(it was actually a vacuum line when daughter driving) and the Jeep once--rubber brake line going to wheel.

Now the tow truck driver who towed the Jeep last week tells me he has "towed" 14 Tesla's is the last 4 months!!--Yup--you guessed it--they ran out of battery!!! Apparently wealthy enough to buy a Tesla does not equal smart enough to drive it!!

Steve

CrabbyMilton · January 22, 2019, 05:29:48 AM

Again, just imagine the problems with TESLA cars being applied to electric buses.
Many PO'd people stranded on their chartered trip along the interstate waiting for a diesel powered bus to come to finish the trip. Then you factor in the AC and heat which will drink up quite a bit of juice alone. Perhaps a small or even portable gasoline generator will give some peace of mind until they are sure that the thing can behave itself on long trips.
I have a friend who'd dad bought a TESLA S which is their nice bigger sedan.
The guy loves it but I wonder how it will hold up over time given the current design.

mmanning · January 22, 2019, 06:42:34 AM

Fleets of long haul commercial buses could just do a battery swap and be on there way, similar to what Tesla has already shown: https://www.tesla.com/videos/battery-swap-event

I don't think that would be an option for a converted bus. If a converted bus went all electric, I do think a good diesel generator would be key. If the owner didn't care about moving too fast solar panels could provide the go juice. Here solar electric van project that is similar to what I envision a solar electric bus might be like: https://www.facebook.com/Routedelsol/