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So how long before we can't afford to drive our buses? i.e. carbon tax, fuel tax, fuel prices any idea? Not trying to be a Debbie downer just a realist.

This conversation has been going on for quite some time, and I'd guess that the short answer is, "we don't know."

Fuel costs a few years ago did put lots of buses off the road, at least for a while, but that had nothing to do with any green energy policy. It was simply the way the fuel prices can become volatile at times and spike as a result of other things in the economy or world news.

California has probably advanced the furthest along the lines of a 'green new deal', but even there the CARB rules are not affecting privately owned buses registered as motor homes. At least not yet.

My two cents' worth, not that it affects the outcome, is that there are so few of us with old buses on the road we're just not a big part of the equation right now. There may be a time when we are, but not for the immediate future.

On a related note, I was watching a YouTube channel yesterday from a company retrofitting classic cars (particularly VW micro buses and European sports cars) to electric operation. It was truly amazing to watch the increase in performance and reliability in these old beasts once the EV conversion was complete.

I'm hopeful that by the time our buses are legislated off the road, either through direct legislation or the limited availability of diesel, there will be options available for EV retrofit which will be practical. As it stands now, there are many ways to convert a bus into an EV but none are truly viable for long-distance travel. The problem seems to be the availability of charging stations capable of recharging a bus or truck, the range provided,  and the time it takes to recharge. Hopefully the technology will continue to develop at an exponential rate and a practical EV retrofit will become available for us.

When range issues and recharge issues are solved, I'd be interested in doing an EV conversion. That would likely keep my bus on the road as long as I'm alive. Of course, even with the retrofit I'll still have to deal with constantly tracking down air leaks.

Ha!

Airleaks will have to be tracked down, the compressor run time will shorten up the range!!!

Finally a way to "encourage" the leaky teakies to do some air system maintenance?

Happy coaching!
Buswarrior

Vehicles in general will be more costly to operate. But don't worry, all electric vehicles will make it all better. It won't cost anything since electricity just comes out of the wall.

Man, no love for green technology this week!  As has been said before, we're too small a group to legislate over, and most of the regulations are focused on commercial operators since they are the major pollution contributors.  Not to say we can't get caught up in something, but we don't really have a target on our backs.

Electric vehicles are rapidly approaching a point of price parity with ICE in many respects - I think that simple economics will drive more people towards them as time goes on, it's not going to take any big moves from whatever the Green New Deal actually ends up being.

Personally, I'd love to get my hands on an electric portal axle or two someday and turn my bus into a diesel-electric hybrid until the battery tech catches up, that'd be a little nicer to the environment and a lot of fun to drive.

Thinking outside the box here...

On a bus with a tag axle, what if the tag were converted into an electrically-driven axle? Would make an interesting hybrid vehicle, for sure. Choose between the near-silent operation of the electric axle when it's appropriate, and choose the diesel driven axle for times it's appropriate.

Some modifications will need to be made to accommodate lubrication on the diesel system while the electric is in use as well as compressor operation, but it's certainly within the realm of possible.

Add regen braking on the tag's system and you'd be able to keep the batteries charged while cruising down the highway at no cost, and you'd get free braking without having to even use the Jakes.

"When range issues and recharge issues are solved"

Don't hold your breath on this one. In the early days of the Model T, electric cars were a contender but had a problem with range and recharge time. So nothing has changed. It isn't a problem that is going to be solved overnight. Very smart people have been working on it for over a hundred years. So far 3 generations haven't solved it and it's pretty unlikely we will live to see the solution.

Jim

There are several quick charge technologies that seem to be proven.  One I read about would take 5 minutes to get to full charge.  Ten years down the line may look seriously different.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-4508314/Electric-car-battery-fully-charged-FIVE-minutes.html

It'll be interesting to see how MCI's new all electric J4500 will work out. I wish them well on that but time will indeed tell. Same with a three major school bus builders offering all electric versions now.

There will be more required than merely having the tech and stations.  If a significant amount of vehicles were to switch to electricity, we are going to need a significant amount of more electricity too.

While people would say it would be wonderful if cars could run on water, but I wonder where Los Angeles is going to get all that extra water. 

Quote from: Jim Blackwood on February 17, 2021, 09:37:36 AM
"When range issues and recharge issues are solved"

Don't hold your breath on this one. In the early days of the Model T, electric cars were a contender but had a problem with range and recharge time. So nothing has changed. It isn't a problem that is going to be solved overnight. Very smart people have been working on it for over a hundred years. So far 3 generations haven't solved it and it's pretty unlikely we will live to see the solution.

Jim

Tech like this can struggle for decades and then suddenly take off and grow wings. Pun intended, but just look at how long it took for the first successful plane to take flight, and then compare that to how much longer it took to get a man on the moon.

Quote from: tr206 on February 17, 2021, 04:28:08 AM
So how long before we can't afford to drive our buses? i.e. carbon tax, fuel tax, fuel prices any idea? Not trying to be a Debbie downer just a realist.

Some would argue many can not afford to fuel buses today. I have some change in my pocket but pull out several hundred dollars go gas up still hurts. Looking forward, diesel will be available for quite some time, even with the push to electricity.
Our buses will never be directly targeted as gross polluters in the future; however, could a larger net get us caught up in a widespread attempt to kill all diesel on the road, maybe. Availability of diesel can only decline as the years go on. No longer is diesel being pushed and electrical vehicles are no longer the future, it's only a question of time for majority adoption.
Maybe others can chime in for specific examples but it would be rare if even happened that a car that was in production was outright removed off the road. Maybe a model was discontinued due to inherent safety flaws but I think old ones were not crushed. Thinking of the gas tanks behind truck bench seats. Did those get totally banned? That would be a rare instance if that even happened.
Most bus owners are going to be in the ground by the time any of this would become law anyway.

This company may have solved one of the hardest problems in clean energy
The "hydrogen economy" may be a thing after all.
By David Roberts  Feb 16, 2018, 9:00am EST
A way to clean up diesel engines for a market that badly needs one

"The first product, scheduled to debut in April, is the key to everything else."

It's called Internal Combustion Assistance (ICA), a modification to internal combustion engines that enables them to substantially increase their fuel efficiency and reduce their air pollution. It does this by adding tiny amounts of gaseous hydrogen and oxygen to the fuel just before it is combusted in the engine's cylinders. The HHO mix lends intensity to the combustion, allowing the fuel to burn more completely, generating more oomph and less pollution.

The ICA system can technically work on any internal combustion engine, but to begin with, HyTech is targeting the dirtiest engines with the fastest return on investment, namely diesel engines — in vehicles like trucks, delivery vans, buses, and forklifts, but also big, stationary diesel generators, which still provide backup (and even primary) power by the millions across the world..."

"...HyTech's offer to that market is pretty remarkable: it claims that its ICA can improve the fuel efficiency of a diesel engine between 20 and 30 percent, reduce particulate matter by 85 percent, and reduce NOx by between 50 and 90 percent. In concert with a DPF and some SCR, it can yield a diesel engine that meets official California standards for an "ultra-low emissions" vehicle.
The cost of transforming a dirty diesel engine to a relatively clean one: around $10,000 installed, which HyTech estimates will pay itself back in nine months through avoided fuel and maintenance costs.

We will probably be using classic licensing as a loophole..

I guess if your young and/or wealthy this is a non issue. But for the Joe six pack's or old retiree who love their old diesels which burn the most efficient and cheapest fuel to date just saying the future may not look to good for us. For you electric bus opponents how much will it cost you to plug in your bus after a 500 mile day running your electric a/c or electric heaters, electric frig, electric water heater, electric cook stove, etc not to mention pulling mountain passes and/or bucking a headwind are you going to be under 65' legal length in a lot of states pulling that battery trailer plus your towed vehicle? Maybe over 65' will be accepted if your all electric who knows. 

Quote from: tr206 on February 17, 2021, 05:44:08 PM
I guess if your young and/or wealthy this is a non issue. But for the Joe six pack's or old retiree who love their old diesels which burn the most efficient and cheapest fuel to date just saying the future may not look to good for us. For you electric bus opponents how much will it cost you to plug in your bus after a 500 mile day running your electric a/c or electric heaters, electric frig, electric water heater, electric cook stove, etc not to mention pulling mountain passes and/or bucking a headwind are you going to be under 65' legal length in a lot of states pulling that battery trailer plus your towed vehicle? Maybe over 65' will be accepted if your all electric who knows.

Certainly won't cost any more to recharge the batteries after a 500-mile run than to refuel the diesel tank.

Batteries take up far less space than one might think - no need for pulling a trailer of bats behind.

Good thing is there will be early-adopters who blaze the trail and get the kinks worked out.

Like I said if your young and/or wealthy it's a non issue. I'm looking 10 years down the road not 50. I'm getting old. Not trying to pick a fight. Battle born wants $900.00 for one little battery right now for example. but your probably right but not in my life time. Plus I love the sound and smell of my two stroke detroit and diesels in general. Diesels bring us most everything we need today.

R.I.P Rush

The issue is timing. Nearly all the current busnuts start with a bus that was in service and put to pasture, making it affordable for this bunch. Yes, some have factory conversions but they are certainly not anywhere new.
It is going to take time for electrical power on a bus scale to trickle down. Just a WAG (Wild @$# Guess), it'll be at least 10 years from now when the secondary markets start making available the new tech equipment at affordable busnut budgets.

Quote from: tr206 on February 17, 2021, 06:23:04 PM
...Diesels bring us most everything we need today.

R.I.P Rush

I agree, but the question originally posed seemed to me about what comes next. Just trying to imagine how it might play out.

I'm thinking that things will roll much faster than any of us are ready for.

Sorry about the misconception. I'm talking about the war on fossil fuel we can't do without it right now. We are all going to pay a heavy price for this "green new deal" I busted @$# all my life and would like to enjoy my bus in my later years but I worry their going drive fuel prices out of my grasp just saying. By the way I too I,m from  Wisconsin.

 The electric buses I saw can recharge the battery on the roof in 10 mintues and go for another 10 miles  8)

Quote from: tr206 on February 17, 2021, 06:44:22 PM
Sorry about the misconception. I'm talking about the war on fossil fuel we can't do without it right now. We are all going to pay a heavy price for this "green new deal" I busted @$# all my life and would like to enjoy my bus in my later years but I worry their going drive fuel prices out of my grasp just saying. By the way I too I,m from  Wisconsin.

I hear what you're saying, but the worry about fuel prices seems to come up every few years. Not too many years ago diesel was about $4/gal in many midwestern states, with fears of it going to $5 or more. Then it dropped down to almost $2, and that was before covid.

Yes, it's concerning. But I don't think that it's going to get crazy as long as there are commercial vehicles still dependent on diesel. With the shear number of trucks still being sold, and the pattern that (even in California) the laws to remove some vehicles from the roads usually play out over a couple of decades we don't have an immediate worry.

Enjoy your bus. My guess is that even with new tech coming online quickly we've got at least a couple of decades before the conversation will turn to getting vehicles like ours off the road. And then it will take a while longer to phase that in.

I'm actually hoping that some new tech starts to come on the scene sooner for people to start playing with, like it is with the hobby world of EV sports cars.

Yeah I know about fuel prices I drove truck for 35 years its your biggest overhead, remembering $5.25 per gallon fuel 200 gallons for $1050 buck and 5.2 mpg do the math on a 3000 mile trip about a buck a mile for fuel in the western states. I respect your desire for electric power but I think you been hanging around Madison to long. Just kidding. I think Texas would agree with me.   :^

Interestingly, EVs may actually drive fuel prices down somewhat in the long run.  Two major reasons:

-Current fuel prices include a road tax.  As more and more of the vehicles on the road stop burning fuel, this tax will by necessity be reassessed and applied differently, probably in a mileage-per-year tax instead.

-As more EVs enter the market, the demand for diesel will drop - probably nothing dramatic, but that's the nature of a product as the supply/demand ratio shifts.  It's not like the oil companies are hurting for profits currently, they can survive a leaner seller's market for quite some time.

I'm confident it will be many years before anyone's actually trying to get ICE vehicles off the road entirely - the day to start worrying about that is the day you can no longer go out and pick up a brand new diesel powered class 8 truck.  Even then, it will be decades down the road - by the time legislation could be passed to really make the roads EV only, there will be so few ICE vehicles left (just hobbyists really) that no one will really bother.

"It won't cost anything since electricity just comes out of the wall"
Im glad you finally realized that.Up here in B.C. where we have an abundance of hydro power the same clowns who are demanding electric vehicles are the same ones who want to stop completion of a 10 billion dollar hydro electric dam (1/2 the money has already been spent) So I guess its a good thing that power does come from a plug on the wall.

Solar farms here in the west are down right ugly laying in the valleys at the foot of the mountains.We have one close that covers 8000 acres that was a recreation area that i is built on federal land,20 acres you could build a power plant that would produce a 1000 times or more electricity per day than the solar on 8000 acres   

Quote from: luvrbus on February 18, 2021, 12:04:28 AM
Solar farms here in the west are down right ugly laying in the valleys at the foot of the mountains.We have one close that covers 8000 acres that was a recreation area that i is built on federal land,20 acres you could build a power plant that would produce a 1000 times or more electricity per day than the solar on 8000 acres

I understand what you're saying, but you're not saying the full story.

Just like people against EVs like to say that electricity doesn't magically come out of the wall, people who like traditional power plants seem to think that a power plant is the full impact.

Just how many mountains have to be removed from a mountain range to power that 20-acre power plant? Or how many oil wells need to be drilled in the Gulf? How many thousand of acres need to be dug up for coal or fracking sand? That 20 acres doesn't represent the total land use involved.

I'm not saying that any one of them in itself will end life as we know it. I'm just trying to point out that your 20-acre power plant has hidden behind it an equally large number of acres to power it.

The difference is that the windmills do far less permanent damage to those 8000 acres. Have you seen what a mountain looks like after a coal mine is done mining? https://appvoices.org/end-mountaintop-removal/mtr101/

Quote from: Fred Mc on February 17, 2021, 09:49:07 PM
"It won't cost anything since electricity just comes out of the wall"
Im glad you finally realized that.Up here in B.C. where we have an abundance of hydro power the same clowns who are demanding electric vehicles are the same ones who want to stop completion of a 10 billion dollar hydro electric dam (1/2 the money has already been spent) So I guess its a good thing that power does come from a plug on the wall.

Obviously I was being sarcastic. But the EV zealots want to roll them out when they aren't proven just yet. Perhaps we would be further ahead if people weren't so fearful of nuclear power which is clean and yes safe. Wind and solar are just supplemental. As for buses, I have to wonder how the J4500 EV version will work on a long charter trip with the heat or AC going full blast depending on the region you are going thru. They ought to offer a small gasoline or diesel generator just in case. The EV school and transit buses may work for short trips around town but it's the longer distance trips that would concern me. The tour operator will have to plan carefully to make sure there are enough charging stations at the hotels. "Oh sorry it doesn't work but my cousin Floyd will pull you folks to the next town with his tractor."

Quote from: CrabbyMilton on February 18, 2021, 04:36:52 AM
Obviously I was being sarcastic. But the EV zealots want to roll them out when they aren't proven just yet. Perhaps we would be further ahead if people weren't so fearful of nuclear power which is clean and yes safe.

I'd be all in on the nuclear power option if it weren't for the simple fact that when it fails (and it does) the amount of destruction that occurs is beyond catastrophic.

Compare the potential for disaster in the two options you mentioned - rolling out EVs before they're fully proven and nuclear power. If the EVs fail, even totally, the amount of subsequent damage can be handled and won't cause any long-lasting problems. Contrast that with the results of what happens when a nuclear facility has a problem - you don't have to look too far back in history, only a few years to Fukashima. If you want another example, go to Chernoble. Both situations will have long-lasting effects and danger. We narrowly escaped a similar situation at Three Mile Island, and I suspect that single event is what put the kibosh on the growth of nuclear power in the US.

Unfortunately there has not been the kind of advancements in nuclear power plant safety that are able to make enough people feel safe having new facilities built. Back in the 70s there was lots of talk of moving from nuclear fission to nuclear fusion, but I haven't heard much about this recently.

Richard I understand not against EV totally. We can go back and forth for hours. Energy is a necessary evil. In my travels I have seen hundreds of acres of windmills and solar farms scaring the land also to crude bubbling out of a road side ditch in Iraq. What about lithium mining for batteries? Its all ugly and dangerous but essential for us to live and thrive until someone develops that truly clean energy in all ways. Can we agree on that. 

Quote from: richard5933 on February 18, 2021, 04:48:36 AM
I'd be all in on the nuclear power option if it weren't for the simple fact that when it fails (and it does) the amount of destruction that occurs is beyond catastrophic.

Compare the potential for disaster in the two options you mentioned - rolling out EVs before they're fully proven and nuclear power. If the EVs fail, even totally, the amount of subsequent damage can be handled and won't cause any long-lasting problems. Contrast that with the results of what happens when a nuclear facility has a problem - you don't have to look too far back in history, only a few years to Fukashima. If you want another example, go to Chernoble. Both situations will have long-lasting effects and danger. We narrowly escaped a similar situation at Three Mile Island, and I suspect that single event is what put the kibosh on the growth of nuclear power in the US.

Unfortunately there has not been the kind of advancements in nuclear power plant safety that are able to make enough people feel safe having new facilities built. Back in the 70s there was lots of talk of moving from nuclear fission to nuclear fusion, but I haven't heard much about this recently.

True Richard. As you correctly stated, there has not been a nuclear mishap here since THREE MILE ISLAND. Sadly, that was over 40 years ago and nobody wants to touch nuclear power either that or it's downplayed and mocked. Still we'll need more powerplants with more EV's being built so this needs to be looked at along with other methods.

I have a diesel suv that is amazing on fuel and has a ton of power

but I am trading it in on a gas suv because of the design problem with the particulate filter . at 60k klm the car went into limp mode and lucky I had extended warranty the repair was fixed at a so called cost of $6200 but that included other stuff like censers . 

there are not very many diesel cars or suvs made anymore other then pick up trucks . everything has been changed over to gas because of all the regulations on the smaller diesel's and the constant change for lower emission's .

the same thing is happening to the large trucks that deliver everything to us but because of the power needed to move a 52' trailer there is not any other choice

there has to be a better way to reduce the emissions then a particulate filter that is doomed to fail in such a short time or find a better system for replacement or a real cleaning system .

how many diesel pick up trucks are on the road that have removed the filter and all that is involved with it ( def ) systems as well .

there has to be a better way as my diesel suv is amazing on power and fuel efficiency compared to the 6 year newer replacement will be 

dave

You ever get behind a semi in the regen mode? So it that calculated into the total emissions the engine is rated for?
Yeah we have pinwheels on several of the mountain tops around here. Activists claim they kill thousands of birds. Who knows? Seems there are activists for anything anymore.

So that cord for the 5 minute charge is a big as your ankle right? It's either that or go up into the Kill-a-volt range to transfer enough power. Either way you have problems. Mine more copper or make more insulation, neither of which is eco friendly. Maybe those new diamond batteries would do the trick.

But still, we're 10 to 20 years away from any sort of a practical solution being adopted widely enough to trickle down to primary transportation. Then another 20 years on top of that before used buses become affordable. (You did notice the trend towards longer service life I'm sure. My "shell" is 25 years old and it is relatively new.)

So for us the bottom line is that we will be pretty far into the long sleep before any of this happens and wishful thinking isn't going to bring it any faster.

Jim

Some kind of battery-swapping tech could become the standard as well.  Why bother with lengthy recharge times and high-current transfers on the go if the battery modules themselves could be swapped out for a charged set?  Future EV batteries could be like our 20# propane tanks today - top it up or swap out for a fresh one, whichever makes more sense at the time.

Quote from: Nova Eona on February 18, 2021, 09:16:51 AM
Some kind of battery-swapping tech could become the standard as well.  Why bother with lengthy recharge times and high-current transfers on the go if the battery modules themselves could be swapped out for a charged set?  Future EV batteries could be like our 20# propane tanks today - top it up or swap out for a fresh one, whichever makes more sense at the time.

That would be chore on the electric buses the complete roof is one gigantic battery

Exactly. At some point there would be a smaller auxiliary battery that you could snap in to get you to a charging station if the main battery craps out.

Quote from: luvrbus on February 18, 2021, 09:33:35 AM

That would be chore on the electric buses the complete roof is one gigantic battery

Whats the reasoning for putting it in the roof? you'd think all that weight would be safer under the floor.

As far as battery swapping goes I'm sure any bus built with the intention of swapping batteries would use a different place to put them.

Just think about this a minute. Who is gonna pay to keep that system going? Already you have a certification issue with propane tanks. Meaning a premium from Blue Rhino to pay for the ones that go out of cert. If you mess up and get stuck with one? Better have a friendly (or dumb) guy to swap it to. If that's an expensive battery pack it's gonna be SO much worse. And they will go downhill fast without an owner to keep them nice so you'll have to keep them hidden 'cause the ugly ones were all you could get. And of course there won't be that much uniformity. I don't see that as really viable.

Jim

Quote from: Nova Eona on February 18, 2021, 09:16:51 AM
Some kind of battery-swapping tech could become the standard as well.  Why bother with lengthy recharge times and high-current transfers on the go if the battery modules themselves could be swapped out for a charged set?  Future EV batteries could be like our 20# propane tanks today - top it up or swap out for a fresh one, whichever makes more sense at the time.

I've long thought that this would be a way to go on EVs. It could even be a robotic swap if the batteries were mounted under the vehicle - drive over the swap out station and it pulls the battery modules. Larger vehicle? More modules tucked underneath.

Quote from: Jim Blackwood on February 18, 2021, 12:26:04 PM
Just think about this a minute. Who is gonna pay to keep that system going? Already you have a certification issue with propane tanks. Meaning a premium from Blue Rhino to pay for the ones that go out of cert. If you mess up and get stuck with one? Better have a friendly (or dumb) guy to swap it to. If that's an expensive battery pack it's gonna be SO much worse. And they will go downhill fast without an owner to keep them nice so you'll have to keep them hidden 'cause the ugly ones were all you could get. And of course there won't be that much uniformity. I don't see that as really viable.

Same way we handle the 20#ers now - if yours is too worn or damaged to take an adequate charge, you swap it out at a local station for a fresher one, and the places that sell and recharge these units take the bad one for recycling - last thing we want is a bunch of old batteries cluttering the countryside, so reclamation infrastructure would be necessary as well as the regulations to ensure people aren't getting bad units slotted in their EVs.  This kind of system would rely on a cheaper and more durable battery capable of self-monitoring, so it's not going to happen tomorrow, but the tech is getting there.

Quote from: CrabbyMilton on February 18, 2021, 04:36:52 AM
Obviously I was being sarcastic. But the EV zealots want to roll them out when they aren't proven just yet. Perhaps we would be further ahead if people weren't so fearful of nuclear power which is clean and yes safe. Wind and solar are just supplemental. As for buses, I have to wonder how the J4500 EV version will work on a long charter trip with the heat or AC going full blast depending on the region you are going thru. They ought to offer a small gasoline or diesel generator just in case. The EV school and transit buses may work for short trips around town but it's the longer distance trips that would concern me. The tour operator will have to plan carefully to make sure there are enough charging stations at the hotels. "Oh sorry it doesn't work but my cousin Floyd will pull you folks to the next town with his tractor."

The initial MCI electric buses are not for long trips.  The range is short enough that they'll really only be for day trips in the immediate area.  They will have to go back to the garage for charging, or if they do go out of town they will have to find a bus company that has the required charger.  You aren't going to charge these buses from a standard 110 volt outlet.  They probably won't charge from a standard EV charger either due to the size of the battery pack.

The initial market for these buses is going to mostly be contracts or places that require electric buses.  I can see these being used for shuttles in national parks where the Parks service requires only electric buses to cut down on pollution.  Or, to provide guided tours in areas where diesel buses are no longer allowed.

Progressive cities may very well say that any charter bus trips have to be in electric buses where distance allows.

Quote from: Nova Eona on February 18, 2021, 01:46:02 PM
but the tech is getting there.

No, it really isn't. When was the last time you saw a gas station equipped with a forklift? Because that's what it's going to take to move those heavy batteries around. And who pays for the bumpage damage? Otherwise you are talking about some very specialized automated equipment and that doesn't come cheap. Each unit will cost more than the car it is meant to service and it will have to be specially built for the particular vehicle it is meant to service, so you've just doubled the cost in infrastructure alone, to say nothing of the high voltage 3 phase power lines required to each station for recharging.

I'm not saying these things can't be done, but this pie-in-the-sky attitude that ignores the realities of the situation is very unrealistic. The fact is it WILL take a long time, and it WILL take a LOT of money. The question that should be asked is this: Do you really want to be the one paying for all of that?

Jim

Quote from: Jim Blackwood on February 18, 2021, 03:04:39 PM
No, it really isn't. When was the last time you saw a gas station equipped with a forklift? Because that's what it's going to take to move those heavy batteries around. And who pays for the bumpage damage? Otherwise you are talking about some very specialized automated equipment and that doesn't come cheap. Each unit will cost more than the car it is meant to service and it will have to be specially built for the particular vehicle it is meant to service, so you've just doubled the cost in infrastructure alone, to say nothing of the high voltage 3 phase power lines required to each station for recharging.

I'm not saying these things can't be done, but this pie-in-the-sky attitude that ignores the realities of the situation is very unrealistic. The fact is it WILL take a long time, and it WILL take a LOT of money. The question that should be asked is this: Do you really want to be the one paying for all of that?

Nothing is without cost, and that includes keeping things just as they are today.  From your description it sounds like you're picturing building this infrastructure as quickly, cheaply, and sloppily as possible using modern technology - why would a forklift be used instead of dedicated and automated equipment?  Tesla has already demoed an automatic charging cable concept which plugs itself in, how far-fetched is it to picture a computer-controlled trolley which guides standardized battery modules in and out of your chosen vehicle?

Consider back at the advent of the automobile.  At the time, horses were the chosen method of conveyance for anyone seriously crossing the distance, as early cars were hobbled by high cost, reliability, and range issues.  Who, they would ask, is going to go to all the carriage houses and install huge tanks of flammable liquids to keep these automobiles topped up?  Who is going to refill them, and who will pay for it all?  Who will be there to decant the gasoline into smaller containers, then pour that into the vehicles?

No one is saying we should switch to EVs overnight, I'd be the first to admit that we don't have the technology, let alone the infrastructure, for that.  Yet.  But to pretend that the market and the technology aren't shifting in that direction is to adopt the same bullheaded attitude that insisted the automobile would never supplant the horse.

I'll take it a step further. Rather than dig a big hole in the ground to bury underground fuel tanks, bury a robotic battery swap system. Pull over the swapping pit, the machine reads the code from the bottom of your car and then proceeds with the necessary battery swap. It's well within current tech to have the robotic system position itself precisely under the car, perform an inspection, do the swap, and put your spent batteries back in the queue for charging.

Quote from: Jim Blackwood on February 18, 2021, 03:04:39 PM
...I'm not saying these things can't be done, but this pie-in-the-sky attitude that ignores the realities of the situation is very unrealistic. The fact is it WILL take a long time, and it WILL take a LOT of money. The question that should be asked is this: Do you really want to be the one paying for all of that?

Jim

Kind of surprised to hear this kind of response from you Jim - after all, aren't you the guy building a leveling system for his bus which is heads and shoulders more complicated than any other on the road? Same for your a/c system design. I really expected you to be more in line with the dreamer than the naysayers on this one.

Technology in the robotic assembly world is far advanced, and putting together a modular system of battery swap stations is well within current capability.

It is a lot easier to believe when you see it.

EV is here and any chat about its viability is simply a waste of time. Here's a picture of a restaurant we dined at on a short road trip last week. It is about half way between LA and SF. The picture  shows the Tesla charging station area; there is another for other hookups.

I'd have to dig too hard to post another of a company parking lot with a long row of chargers for employees.

GM recently stated it would only build EV not that far out.

Quote from: belfert on February 18, 2021, 02:54:42 PM
The initial MCI electric buses are not for long trips.  The range is short enough that they'll really only be for day trips in the immediate area.  They will have to go back to the garage for charging, or if they do go out of town they will have to find a bus company that has the required charger.  You aren't going to charge these buses from a standard 110 volt outlet.  They probably won't charge from a standard EV charger either due to the size of the battery pack.

The initial market for these buses is going to mostly be contracts or places that require electric buses.  I can see these being used for shuttles in national parks where the Parks service requires only electric buses to cut down on pollution.  Or, to provide guided tours in areas where diesel buses are no longer allowed.

Progressive cities may very well say that any charter bus trips have to be in electric buses where distance allows.

Tulsa County Ok owned a electric MCI that just sold at auction,the bus never made a round trip without breaking down hauling prisoners from Tulsa to McAlester a 100 mile 1 way trip the old Blue Birds where sent to finish hauling the prisoners every trip

Every new technology has problems that are resolved over time or the entire idea gets scrapped. I'm always on the lookout for batteries in the secondary market and it is rare to find them being sourced from electric buses. BYD has quite a few running around but I'm guessing that spares are kept around to avoid parts availability issues. Also, newer battery banks don't simply die but cells and modules do, so extra battery banks to harvest is a good and cheap way.

Quote from: windtrader on February 18, 2021, 06:32:52 PM
It is a lot easier to believe when you see it.

EV is here and any chat about its viability is simply a waste of time. Here's a picture of a restaurant we dined at on a short road trip last week. It is about half way between LA and SF. The picture  shows the Tesla charging station area; there is another for other hookups.

I'd have to dig too hard to post another of a company parking lot with a long row of chargers for employees.

GM recently stated it would only build EV not that far out.

That won't last long. Long term such practice will give the impression that electricity is free. Just plug it in...

Quote from: belfert on February 18, 2021, 02:54:42 PM
The initial MCI electric buses are not for long trips.  The range is short enough that they'll really only be for day trips in the immediate area.  They will have to go back to the garage for charging, or if they do go out of town they will have to find a bus company that has the required charger.  You aren't going to charge these buses from a standard 110 volt outlet.  They probably won't charge from a standard EV charger either due to the size of the battery pack.

The initial market for these buses is going to mostly be contracts or places that require electric buses.  I can see these being used for shuttles in national parks where the Parks service requires only electric buses to cut down on pollution.  Or, to provide guided tours in areas where diesel buses are no longer allowed.

Progressive cities may very well say that any charter bus trips have to be in electric buses where distance allows.

I heard this argument before a gal of diesel vs killowatt hours

For those who are dismissing the EV option for heavy vehicles (trucks and buses)...

Assuming we ignore the ever-growing fleet of vehicles out there testing the technology and making rapid improvements, what do you guys propose we do moving forward?

Are you saying that we're fine using 100-year-old technology to move vehicles and that the internal combustion engine is the end-all-be-all? I'm really curious what you think the future of heavy vehicles should look like if you don't think that the EV is the correct path.

Dreamer. How about Blue Rhino battery exchange at Walmarts. One thing that is going to need to happen is standardization of batteries to a few instead of many.The biggest impact will be to convert the short trip users. Thats where user acceptance will happen fastest. Already more are considering ev's than just a few years ago. Longer range will come slower. I'm sure we aren't done with breakthroughs in battery technology. Even solar panels are getting constantly better, just like heat pumps.

Belfert, I see you're from the Twin Cities area. For many years, I have visited MALL OF AMERICA for my "walking vacation". There are plenty of hotel shuttle vans and buses that come into that specific section and most of the vans and bus chassis are FORD with a few GM's However for the last few years, there has been a few RAM PROMASTER vans converted to all electric. Well, back in 2019 I was talking to my hotel shuttle driver about those and he said that he knows one of the drivers. He said this driver has a big box of hand warmers just in case. Makes sense since there are many people over 70 and in the middle of winter, you don't want to konk out in the freeway back to the hotel. Point being, even short distances, there us understandable skepticism to the point where it needs to prove itself some more. Not saying these things are bad but it's how it's perceived that can make all of the difference.

It doesn't seem quite fair to judge an entire technology market based off the first-gen aftermarket/mid-stream conversions a hotel makes use of, does it?

I live in New Hampshire and see a surprising number of Teslas out there - despite the cold, I have yet to see a single one towing a generator or broken down on the side of the road, and have never heard of their drivers packing extra heating equipment as a matter of course.  Obviously there's more engineering involved in a shuttle or full bus than for a passenger car, but that's a matter of scale more than anything.

Sorry but I can't just hop on this bandwagon, at least not yet. To start with, your subterranean battery swapping system just got a LOT more expensive. Do you think automated equipment is cheap? That one machine you are talking about is going to go for over a million bucks minimum and that's not counting the excavation, landscaping, conveyance, storage, charging, inventory, etc, etc, etc. So each of these modern up to date battery swap installations of yours are going to run somewhere between 2.5 and 5 million bucks each. Whereas your corner gas store probably goes around 1/2 to 1M.

So your cars cost twice as much, your battery swappers cost up to 10 times as much, and there will be hiccups.

As I said, yes it can be done, but somebody is going to have to pay for all of that. In the end all the hidden costs will come home to roost and it'll be nowhere near as attractive as it was when electricity was "free". All these things mean the technology is not yet mature enough for prime time, and it won't be for another decade or two based on typical development times.

But go ahead and push forwards. The one thing I have learned is anytime you get in a hurry it costs you and the bigger the hurry the higher the cost. So go right ahead, just as long as I'm not the one paying for it.

Jim

Quote from: Jim Blackwood on February 19, 2021, 09:18:56 AM
Sorry but I can't just hop on this bandwagon, at least not yet. To start with, your subterranean battery swapping system just got a LOT more expensive. Do you think automated equipment is cheap? That one machine you are talking about is going to go for over a million bucks minimum and that's not counting the excavation, landscaping, conveyance, storage, charging, inventory, etc, etc, etc. So each of these modern up to date battery swap installations of yours are going to run somewhere between 2.5 and 5 million bucks each. Whereas your corner gas store probably goes around 1/2 to 1M.

So your cars cost twice as much, your battery swappers cost up to 10 times as much, and there will be hiccups.

As I said, yes it can be done, but somebody is going to have to pay for all of that. In the end all the hidden costs will come home to roost and it'll be nowhere near as attractive as it was when electricity was "free". All these things mean the technology is not yet mature enough for prime time, and is won't be for another decade or two based on typical development times.

But go ahead and push forwards. The one thing I have learned is anytime you get in a hurry it costs you and the bigger the hurry the higher the cost. So go right ahead, just as long as I'm not the one paying for it.

Jim

So if everyone waits until the technology is mature enough for prime time before adopting, just how does technology get mature enough for prime time.

People said similar things at the start of the video cassette revolution. "It will never catch on", "The machines are way too expensive", "People won't be happy watching at home instead of the theater", etc. etc. etc. Machines very quickly dropped from thousands to very affordable.

You're correct that this is all going to cost quite a bit at first. So did installing the infrastructure for internal combustion engines. Those pipelines, refineries, storage tanks, underground station tanks, etc. didn't come for free either. Good thing there were companies and businesses willing to take the chance and move forward with things.

As the technology evolves there will be smart companies that get in on the early stages. The others will look around in a couple of decades and wonder where all their customers went just like Kodak, Sears, and Sony Walkman are doing now after not keeping up with the latest.

Will the new technology be for every customer or fleet operator? Of course not, but my guess is that there will be plenty of incentives offered to get the early adopters on the road, just like Tesla has done to get their charging stations installed in every corner of the country.

Electricity to fuel a EV costs money, anyone who thinks it is free lost too many marbles. EV stations charge, you don't just drive up and plug it in. When you charge at home, you pay your monthly electricity bill, maybe not much if net metering drops it to zero.


All the hoopla over range is mostly over. Many moving closer to 300 range, unless you are on a long trip, you will almost certainly be home and plugged in before being empty. For that matter, carefully study your typical distance driven in one or two days. I bet most can go a couple days between charge ups at home.


So, you take a trip. Most medical professionals recommend taking a break every few hours, so stop half way and have a smoke and a Coke. Supercharging tech is pretty amazing and you can get a decent boost in a short time. Again, stopping is needed if your trip is longer than the range of the vehicle. I'm guessing most average consumers can live with this sort of inconvenience when it arises.

But wait, there's more!

Your typical gas-n-go has up to 2 dozen refill spots, (six double stacked 2 sided islands) where we were talking about a single high speed battery swapping machine that can do the job in 5 minutes, roughly akin to a refill. Just what do you think happens when you multiply that installation cost by 24? Now you are talking about  a $60 Million dollar installation! For ONE gas station. Government going to pay for that? I sure hope not.

And then how about all those batteries? Have you looked at the number of cars that go in and out of one of those stations in an hour's time? Even if it took no more than an hour to fast charge a battery, which would be seriously pushing things, at peak you'd have to have an underground warehouse full of charged batteries to handle rush hour. So now this underground charger of yours just became a four story underground warehouse and charging facility with power cables the size of Hoover Dam. OK, that's a slight exaggeration but think about it. You HAVE to consider the infrastructure to make something like this work.

Jim

I keep seeing the detractors shouting 'electricity isn't free!' which strikes me as a total strawman - who is saying that the electricity is free?  If you have electric heat in your house, do you think that is free?  Do you run your air conditioner full-blast all summer because electricity is free?  Even if the origin source of the electricity is effectively indefinite - solar or wind for example - obviously there are substantial costs in harvesting and transporting that energy.

Pointing out costs in the infrastructure as a dismissal of the technology is not a good faith argument - keep in mind we've had many decades to refine our gas/diesel distribution system, it's folly to think that there will not be a similar evolution for electric vehicles.

To an earlier point made - for those here vehemently against EVs, what do you see as the future of transportation?  What will people be driving in 50 years if not electric, and why?  Sometimes it seems like those opposed are just looking backward instead of considering how to actually move forward.

I never said it was free but some people seem to think it is. These places of business that are providing complementary charging spaces for EV's are doing themselves a disservice over the long term. Never in my life did I go to the store and have an employee come out with a fuel can and dump gasoline in my tank. Why should EV's be so special?

First, the gas station as we know it took decades to develop. They didn't just magically pop up one day. In the very early days, automobile owners had to drive to bulk depots and buy it in bottles and cans. The infrastructure took time to build out, just like is happening now.

http://www.autolife.umd.umich.edu/Environment/E_Casestudy/E_casestudy8.htm

Second, there are lots of places which had some pretty decent giveaways and incentives over the past decades/century. They may not have pumped free fuel into your car, but even here in SE Wisconsin you can still get a really decent discount for fuel if you shop in their store first. In some states the discounts are even bigger where rules permit.

The stores that are currently offering free EV charging are doing it for one reason - it brings in customers. Mostly it brings in customers with spare cash to spend too.

Anyone that thinks the current system of fueling internal combustion engines has always paid its own way needs to look a bit deeper. There are financial incentives provided to the oil and gas industry, and there have been for decades.

So, I'll ask again to the naysayers in the group who insist that EVs are not ready for prime time...

What's your plan for moving forward?

I never said it can't be done. But, there are huge issues and personal attacks aren't going to change that and it is starting to sound like we are headed that way, so you guys be careful there. It's the last resort of the losing side of the debate team, we all know that.

Gas stations did not start out with mega-million dollar refueling complexes, and they aren't anywhere close to them now. But EV's are going to need them unless you can come up with a better way to do things.

This is why I said battery swapping is not ready for prime time. Can it be made ready? Who knows, but ignoring the facts won't suddenly make it happen. The logistics are just impossible once you start looking at what has to be done to make it happen.

The only logical approach requires an in depth analysis of the entire transportation system and I have no doubt that is being done, but to a large degree this is nothing more or less than a political hot potato. I don't argue that things like emissions concerns haven't improved things for us all, and yes they were necessary. But this isn't something that can or should happen overnight. There are good alternatives out there. For instance, one new technology uses direct injection of hydrogen to double the power, economy, and cleanliness of diesel engines, meeting and exceeding the proposed California emissions regs. Very likely cheaper than EV and certainly applicable to OTR trucking as well as most other transportation apps. And since hydrogen can be produced by electrolysis there's a good place to use your excess electricity once everyone trades in their EVs.

Jim 

I find Musk to be an interesting guy.  He has actually changed the world in several ways.  He transformed the banking industry with Paypal, the space industry with SpaceX, and the automotive industry with Tesla.  I may even be buying a Tesla solar roof since I think solar will pay for me (if I live ten years) and I need a roof anyway.

Since Tesla, all the majors have driven deeply into EV.  This, of course, represents massive investment.  The cars and range are steadily improving, and I see no reason to think that is going to change.  There certainly are obstacles to be overcome before they will be for everyone and all applications, but it does appear that we are headed that way. I personally think that fast charging will be the breakthrough that is needed.  As is, I already know people that have bought EV's and rave about them.  I would not mind having a Tesla myself if they were about 1/10th the price.

"What's your plan for moving forward?"
And that's exactly the problem.We seem hell bent to destroy the oil and gas industry and the ICE BEFORE the alternate is fully implemented.  It appears as though Texas has learned that the hard way with their power grid..
And here in BC they are trying to scuttle a huge hydro electric project while at the same time forcing new homes to have an ev plug at their house. Where do they think the huge increase in electricity use from ev's is going to come from?

Quote from: Fred Mc on February 19, 2021, 12:21:18 PM
"What's your plan for moving forward?"
And that's exactly the problem.We seem hell bent to destroy the oil and gas industry and the ICE BEFORE the alternate is fully implemented.  It appears as though Texas has learned that the hard way with their power grid..
And here in BC they are trying to scuttle a huge hydro electric project while at the same time forcing new homes to have an ev plug at their house. Where do they think the huge increase in electricity use from ev's is going to come from?

I don't know how to tell you this, but no one is destroying the oil and gas industries - both are alive and well, and being subsidized by your own tax dollars to the tune of billions despite massive profits every year.  As was beaten around exhaustively in the other thread, the events in Texas have practically nothing to do with green energy (we have windmills running in Antarctica), it's just being used as a scapegoat to keep greedy deregulators' necks off the chopping block.  No one is suggesting we need to switch to EVs overnight, and no one is saying energy is free.  I still have not heard anyone suggest a transportation future which does not include a huge amount of EVs, regardless of the amount of innovation needed to get there.

Quote from: CrabbyMilton on February 19, 2021, 10:19:26 AM
I never said it was free but some people seem to think it is. These places of business that are providing complementary charging spaces for EV's are doing themselves a disservice over the long term. Never in my life did I go to the store and have an employee come out with a fuel can and dump gasoline in my tank. Why should EV's be so special?

Go ahead and look up how much it costs that business to charge a customers car for an hour (assuming it is pulling full charge the whole time they are sitting at that restaurant) Now think about their profits vs the restaurant across the street that all the EV owners aren't going to because they don't have chargers. Once everyone has them I'll bet they will become something similar to a toll parking spot and charge by how long you are connected. Until then the cost to charge a car is nothing compared to bringing customers in.

Quote from: Fred Mc on February 19, 2021, 12:21:18 PM
"What's your plan for moving forward?"
And that's exactly the problem.We seem hell bent to destroy the oil and gas industry and the ICE BEFORE the alternate is fully implemented.  It appears as though Texas has learned that the hard way with their power grid..
And here in BC they are trying to scuttle a huge hydro electric project while at the same time forcing new homes to have an ev plug at their house. Where do they think the huge increase in electricity use from ev's is going to come from?

It's not so much the goal to destroy the oil and gas industry, just to eventually make it redundant.

I think that even the most ardent EV supporters acknowledge that there is going to be a substantial overlap period as EVs come of age and become a larger piece of the national fleet. During that time it's going to be quite important to still have a fully functional oil & gas industry and fuel station system.

But, we've already seen the beginning of the changeover. In my reading about this online earlier today, I found this story about the first US gas station which converted to EV charging only. https://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/infrastructure/a29265643/electric-only-gas-station/

This is going to become more numerous in the coming years. Truck stops are already starting to install EV charging stations for trucks in some areas and I expect this to take off as more and more EVs hit the road.

One factor to consider as well is that charging methods need not be mutually exclusive - of course stores and restaurants will eventually charge for use of a charging station, but this will significantly reduce the load on the EV 'gas stations' - how often will you need to stop anywhere for a full charge when you're being topped up not just at home but also at half the places you stop to run errands?  For comparison, how convenient would it be if it was possible to have a restaurant top up the tank in your ICE vehicle while you're inside having a meal?

It's not hard to imagine that future 'gas stations' will have a few battery-swappers or fast chargers for the few drivers who are going a long distance or have somehow gotten unusually low on charge, while the majority of people may go weeks or months without ever stopping at one since they can get topped up almost anywhere else.  Particularly with the continuing advances in battery tech, it's entirely possible that drivers will simply not have to worry about the state of their battery unless they've been driving for a very long time.

Man,
I couldn't even read thru it all. There is no doubt the storms are making more folks get cranky and cabin fever seems going wild.


Again, this is a paradigm shift in fueling personal vehicles. Most of your charges over time will be done at home! Today, every vehicle used by consumers has to fuel at a commercial certified fueling station. That is why there are so many stations and pumps. Once most charge at home, many of the remaining corner fueling stations will go through another repurposing, like it did in the 70's, from gas stations on all four corners down to one.


Swappable batteries only make sense where time to recharge is too short. There may be edge cases where this is required but most won't go this way.


Then the massive wave if how we transport ourselves on a daily basis is like a tsunami still forming out in the vast ocean. Two trends are going to fundamentally change the entire industry. AI via self aware and self guided technology is basically already here. Needs more tweaks, slogging through the regulatory morass, and consumer resistance, but it's coming. Then you look at the Uber model and replace humans being called to drive you around with an EV auto drive vehicle.


There are plenty of naysayers as evidenced by crowing about just one hurdle to clear mentally much less several. What is happening now, just follow the money, massive investments and bets on this stuff. The day will arrive when you don't buy and maintain your own car. You simply request a ride via the AI in your home (already here: Google Assistant/Home and Apple Siri, etc.). It connects to Uber that dispatches an autonomous EV to pick you up and deliver you to your destination. Your payment is already deducted via electronic payment gateway. You can ask for private direct point to point service or shared ride with a extra stop or two along the route, saving some coin.


Just not sure why folks either deny or resist accepting what is coming. It is not even speculation. Like I said, just dig into the financial markets and look where the billions and billions of capital is going, and listen to what major global vehicle makers are bringing to market today and their stated goals over the coming years.


Then there is the last mile delivery challenge which is quickly being solved, Amazon is now commercially starting drone delivery on a limited basis. It is only going to grow massively and rapidly as soon as the regulatory swamp gets paid off to clear the air routes to make this happen.


Then lastly, the big one - WTF do people do as the millions of these lower paid service jobs disappear.


Oh - icing on the cake - food service is going automated, then you connect with autonomous deliver and you nearly take out all humans in those sector.


We face some truly existential threats to the fabric of our capitalist, democratic system. Now that is speculation what sort of revolution occurs and who wields to power over it all.


Good day, gents. I've got my staging spot secure, on the edge of civilization. This year is the year to secure the totally off grid site, ideally 100 miles from the nearest highway. That will be remote enough to survive the coming collapse.

I agree that the ev's are coming but it will take 5-10 years before there is maybe 25 % of them on the road . But I do not think there will be very many large trucks on the road that are ev's 

I think the nay sayers need to burn the red hat as that time is over

just my 2 cents worth

dave   

Don't worry, the ev owners will start paying through the nose in a few years when they start charging for road use fees, and convenient charging. That great benefit will quickly start shrinking.
Major manufacturers are switching to ev's because fuel economy and emission regulations are getting too severe and costly not to start making electric vehicles. No emission or fuel economy costs to deal with. Just wait. Even with all electric vehicles, states like California will start passing laws to improve battery range, discharge emissions from batteries, etc. The CARB and all its officials isn't going to disappear. Job security, you know?

And then there is the entire underground issue of hazardous waste disposal. We've only just touched the tip of the iceberg there.

Jim

Jim, I have been in the gas station business for 30 years, and I can tell you that your 1/2 to 1 million cost to build one is way low. It is more like 4 to 5 million.

Also I have been researching fast chargers to offer at one of our stations. The cost is huge. The ROI isn't there. I am talking fast charger, not just an outlet in the side of the building. Also the technology isn't mature enough yet to make the investment worthwhile. This is something that large corporations and governments can afford with their deep pockets. Not for little independents like us.

QuoteThis is something that large corporations and governments can afford with their deep pockets. Not for little independents like us.

And that is exactly what is going on now. Federal tax credit is still $7,500 for the following. Note Tesla no longer qualifies for any tax credit.

The government is going to subsidize the EV industry for a number of years. Whether they extend credits to existing petroleum businesses is a massive battle I suspect. With so many fossil fuel haters it'd be no surprise the government offers help to new non-petrol industry. But again you need to think out of the box as there is going to be far fewer standalone commercial charging stations. Between home and work and shopping stations, I just don't see nearly as many needed like gas stations are today.


All-electric vehicles
Make and Model[/t]Full Tax Credit
Audi e-tron Sportback$7,500
Audi e-tron SUV$7,500
BMW i3 Sedan$7,500
BMW i3s$7,500
Fiat 500e$7,500
Ford Focus EV$7,500
Ford Mustang Mach-E$7,500
Hyundai Ioniq Electric$7,500
Hyundai Kona Electric$7,500
Jaguar I-Pace$7,500
Kia Niro EV$7,500
Kia Soul Electric$7,500
Mercedes-Benz B-Class EV$7,500
MINI Cooper S E Hardtop (2020-2021)$7,500
Mitsubishi i-MiEV$7,500
Nissan LEAF$7,500
Porsche Taycan 4S$7,500
Porsche Taycan Turbo EV$7,500
Smart fortwo Coupe$7,500
Smart fortwo Cabrio$7,500
Volkswagen e-Golf$7,500
Volkswagen ID.4 EV$7,500
XC40 Recharge Pure Electric$7,500


EDIT:
While poking around I just discovered CA is offering another $2,000 credit for new
EV
California Clean Fuel Reward [is available starting November 2020 and] is limited to participating dealers. Reward amount varies based on battery capacity. See your dealer or https://www.cleanfuelreward.com (https://www.cleanfuelreward.com/) for details.
California Clean Vehicle rebate amounts are as follows: Plug-in Hybrid - $1,000; all Electric - $2,000; and Fuel Cell - $4,500.  Must be based in California and purchase or lease from a California dealer. Must own or lease vehicle for at least 36 months. Additional restrictions apply. Eligibility is based on income and may be subject to change. See https://cleanvehiclerebate.org (https://cleanvehiclerebate.org/) or your dealer for details.

That's nearly $10,000 of credit back. Makes you want to take a look?

2 largest factors on  the horizon are 1) emerging battery technology will be lighter cheaper and longer range 2) the future of long range charging will be imbedded in the road and will charge you as you are moving

Quote from: niles500 on February 19, 2021, 09:55:41 PM
2 largest factors on  the horizon are 1) emerging battery technology will be lighter cheaper and longer range 2) the future of long range charging will be imbedded in the road and will charge you as you are moving

Agree with first one. Already the next gen of energy storage is being developed - solid state - don't ask how that works. lol


Charging on the road was an early concept. I don't see it happening as the costs seems very large, my opinion. Plus the amount of current that can be passed would be a lot less than via plugin.


After posting that last note about the extra $2000 credit for CA drivers, it got me seriously looking for one. Sort of crazy price disruptions going on too. 2022 Chevy Bolt Gets Upgrades, $5,000 Price Drop


So now we at $15,000 off sticker, really makes you want to check it out, at least me.

JC I stand corrected, and I'm not surprised. I was trying to be conservative but with a house today running $1/2M I admit I overdid it. What are your thoughts on battery swapping and embedded roadway power? I think I can guess.

The very idea of creating a magnetic flux six inches to a foot above the roadbed that is intense enough to be picked up and used to drive a string of vehicles is ludicrous. Physics demands much shorter distances for magnetics, so that embedded power concept never had the first chance. Not only will we not see it soon, we will never see it.

Now the garage floor inductive coupler is a good idea and has the potential at least to bring the EV into the mainstream. It's hard to overestimate the impact of removing the cord from the everyday commute. Given the choice of plugging in and unplugging the car as opposed to parking on top of a puck, the consumer will choose the puck every single time. This is actually a much bigger issue than recharging because it is a daily event as opposed to a seasonal event like the extended trip. The reason that can work when the roadway idea cannot is that the coupling distance can be greatly reduced, and it has to be to work. There is no way we are building a massive CERN collider into all our roads.

But, shifting the energy load from crude to the power grid is going to cause no end of trouble once this gets rolling. Think Texas had it bad? You ain't seen nothin yet.

Jim

Quote from: Jim Blackwood on February 19, 2021, 10:33:48 PM
....But, shifting the energy load from crude to the power grid is going to cause no end of trouble once this gets rolling. Think Texas had it bad? You ain't seen nothin yet.

Jim

On this piece we agree totally. Our power grid is still largely running on 100+ year old technology. It's been in need of updating for decades now, and maybe the push towards EVs will be what's needed to make it happen.

Thank you Californians for ponying up your taxes ro supply these subsidies. And supporting more non US manufacturers. More of the same.

Thank you Californians for ponying up your taxes ro supply these subsidies. And supporting more non US manufacturers. More of the same.

Quote from: chessie4905 on February 20, 2021, 05:29:26 AM
Thank you Californians for ponying up your taxes ro supply these subsidies. And supporting more non US manufacturers. More of the same.

A little more research/information on this shows that there are US companies manufacturing vehicles which also qualify.

Here's a list I found online which definitely shows US companies included: https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/taxevb.shtml

The California program doesn't appear to specify which manufacturers are included: https://cleanvehiclerebate.org/eng/ev/incentives/state-and-federal

Wow! Some great debates going on here. So not to change the subject much but do we have any supporters of Bill Gates push for synthetic meat to curb climate change (rid the world of cow farts) and will it require refrigeration and does it make us gassy if we eat it because that wouldn't be good and should we ban gassy foods altogether for the human emitter? Just curious.

Quote from: tr206 on February 20, 2021, 07:23:36 AM
Wow! Some great debates going on here. So not to change the subject much but do we have any supporters of Bill Gates push for synthetic meat to curb climate change (rid the world of cow farts) and will it require refrigeration and does it make us gassy if we eat it because that wouldn't be good and should we ban gassy foods altogether for the human emitter? Just curious.

Synthetic meat?  Sure, why not?  If they can make it as healthy or healthier, as tasty or tastier, and as cheap or cheaper than farm-grown meat - all of which lie within the realm of possibility - then I'd buy it.

Better check out all the ingredients in that stuff to make taste like real meat.

Soylent Green??? 

😅 why not? Too many cemetaries and all the cremation emissions.

Quote from: chessie4905 on February 20, 2021, 07:57:59 AM
Better check out all the ingredients in that stuff to make taste like real meat.

Eh, it's not like the rest of my groceries come solely from farmers' markets and organic suppliers.  Synthetic meat has to go through the same food safety regulations and list its ingredients and nutritional data just like the rest of our food, if our scientists and nutritionists give it the stamp of approval I'm not going to second-guess them without cause just because it's different.

LOL I have seen it here in the west where tree forests were clear cut for a renewable energy nothing has ever grew back even planting of trees they never grew back careful what you wish for this new battery tech has a nasty make up the landfills are not going to be happy with   

Quote from: luvrbus on February 20, 2021, 08:31:39 AM
LOL I have seen it here in the west where tree forests were clear cut for a renewable energy nothing has ever grew back even planting of trees they never grew back careful what you wish for this new battery tech has a nasty make up the landfills are not going to be happy with   

Never undestood That as these Tree Huggers are the ones pushing this crap.

At the risk being labelled a non believer I'm trying to compile evidence of how humans contributed or caused the great ice age can anyone help me out here? I'm sure it can't be a natural occurrence right? Ed your scaring to hell out of me.

Quote from: tr206 on February 20, 2021, 08:55:52 AM
At the risk being labelled a non believer I'm trying to compile evidence of how humans contributed or caused the great ice age can anyone help me out here? I'm sure it can't be a natural occurrence right? Ed your scaring to hell out of me.

Somebody will be along shortly to enlighten us.

Quote from: muldoonman on February 20, 2021, 08:49:08 AM
Never undestood That as these Tree Huggers are the ones pushing this crap.

I think that there is a HUGE chasm between both extremes of this argument. This is not a binary choice with only two options.

Quote from: tr206 on February 20, 2021, 08:55:52 AM
At the risk being labelled a non believer I'm trying to compile evidence of how humans contributed or caused the great ice age can anyone help me out here? I'm sure it can't be a natural occurrence right? Ed your scaring to hell out of me.

Can't explain the great ice age to you, and I would agree that there are natural events and cycles that we can't control. But, do humans have an impact in our environment? I can certainly point to the Island of Hispaniola as an example of how we do. One end of the island is Haiti and the other is the Dominican Republic. Take a look at any aerial photo and see the difference for yourself.

I am not sure about synthetic meat, but there are many plant based meat alternatives.  Some are quite good.  I do not really think that the important issue is whether plant based "chicken" tastes exactly like a dead chicken. It would seem more important to me that it just tastes good. 

Quote from: tr206 on February 20, 2021, 08:55:52 AM
At the risk being labelled a non believer I'm trying to compile evidence of how humans contributed or caused the great ice age can anyone help me out here? I'm sure it can't be a natural occurrence right? Ed your scaring to hell out of me.

Who is suggesting that humans had anything to do with the last ice age?  Are you positing that for humans to have a hand in modern climate change, they must have been responsible for past climate changes as well?

The earth is millions of year old right? I can't buying into (I believe) a theory that humans with the use of fossil fuels for what a 100 plus years (is that even a blink of the eye in the grand seem of time?) can totally destroy the earths climate in the next 10 years because that's what their saying. And why is it a mostly leftist driven agenda that makes it suspect for me. Is John Kerry really out to save us from our self's.

Maybe the earth is creeping closer to the sun. What do they say...93,000,000 miles. When is the last time they got the tape measure out?

Don't give em anymore ideas.

John Kerry is an Al Gore wannabee.

First we're overdue for a mini-ice age and now it's global warming. Sounds like politics as usual to me.

Jim

Quote from: tr206 on February 20, 2021, 11:16:18 AM
The earth is millions of year old right? I can't buying into (I believe) a theory that humans with the use of fossil fuels for what a 100 plus years (is that even a blink of the eye in the grand seem of time?) can totally destroy the earths climate in the next 10 years because that's what their saying. And why is it a mostly leftist driven agenda that makes it suspect for me. Is John Kerry really out to save us from our self's.

To rule out political agenda's you only need to look outside of the US. Every country that supports scientific research understands the effects of dumping CO2 into the atmosphere. The fact that we have had such a profound effect in such a short time is where all the issues come from. We have already made irreversible changes that our grandchildren will have to live with.

The question now is do we continue making it worse or find a new way to get things done? Sometimes that means spending money on technology that isn't as mature as the older technology. In a purely capitalist society we would never do that because it makes less money. The "leftist agenda" is socialist. That's the point. It is making a financial decision now to benefit our society.

This is a global issue which brings up another scary term: globalism. If our social programs to improve the environment aren't done globally then they will fail. Sometimes that means we have to do the right thing and support poor countries doing the right thing while one of the "other" country does something bad to make a quick buck.


Back to the tech side of things: No, we likely won't get it perfect the first time. Yes, we will likely make a mess here and there. In the long run if we stick with "proven oil and gas" we will continue to damage our planet and we will eventually run out. What will we do then when we haven't developed an alternative. I know some of the folks here may remember the dinosaurs but I don't. they are gone along with the peat bogs your oil comes from. Oil is a finite source of carbon dense fuel sequestered far under ground. When we take it out of the ground and burn it where does the carbon go? Anybody who tells you it doesn't end up in the air is lying to you.

Yeah It's not global warming anymore that didn't work for them that's why it climate change you can go either way now. If there isn't a crisis they have to make one. Let no crisis go to waste behavioral control they must deplete your freedoms.

I'll agree that humans may not have the power to make global changes in the short term, but a brief look at history certainly shows that human activity has had major impacts on local environments with disastrous results.

For example, entire weather patterns for sections of the planet have been changed by clear cutting the vast majority of trees in certain parts of the globe. These things happen incredibly fast in the overall scheme of things. Like I posted before - it's possible with aerial photography to see stark differences on two sides of the same border with one lush and the other a dust bowl. That's not a natural occurrence, it's the direct result of one side being clear cut while the other was better cared for.

This is not a left propaganda thing, this is just facts on the ground. Sorry to report, but humans have not been great stewards of the earth's resources all the time. Sometimes greed gets the better of us and bad things happen.

Are you guys seriously saying that humans have not had impact on places we've lived?

Not say humans can't impact small parts of the world. Just not buying total global devastation all the time drum beat for the short time humans have been here baring the nuclear war.

Quote from: tr206 on February 20, 2021, 11:57:41 AM
Not say humans can't impact small parts of the world. Just not buying total global devastation all the time drum beat for the short time humans have been here.

Then perhaps we can all agree at least to stop peeing in our drinking water (metaphorically and literally) and each do our part to take care of our own corners of the globe. If everyone did that we'd have far fewer problems.

Still amazes me how many places I see still dumping toxic fluids to the ground and then complaining about the cost of the new water treatment plant needed to provide safe drinking water.

Quote from: tr206 on February 20, 2021, 11:57:41 AM
Not say humans can't impact small parts of the world. Just not buying total global devastation all the time drum beat for the short time humans have been here baring the nuclear war.

There isn't much we can do to cause "total global devastation". Nobody is saying that will be the result. We will just make more and more of out planet uninhabitable for humans. Other species will continue to die off as well as the ongoing mass extinction event continues. In the long run the earth will still be here and life will be on it. It will just look a bit different a few million years from now. The question is will humans still be here.

Have we not made huge advances to clean up pollution from fossil fuels, plant trees etc whatever? but it's hardly ever reported because it doesn't fit the agenda of the left. yes no?

Quote from: tr206 on February 20, 2021, 12:21:43 PM
Have we not made huge advances to clean up pollution from fossil fuels, plant trees etc whatever? but it's hardly ever reported because it doesn't fit the agenda of the left. yes no?

Oh sure, just look at comparisons of smog levels and water pollution today vs. 40 years ago in most major cities.  Trouble is, we need substantially more than has been done and we're seeing diminishing returns; fossil fuels simply cannot sustainably provide for our civilization without wrecking havoc on the environment (which we live in).  It's like when they realized that asbestos caused cancer - the solution wasn't 'less, safer asbestos' it was new technologies which could initially meet, and then eventually surpassed, the role which asbestos played in the majority of the world.

In a rational world, this would not be a political issue - the facts are there and the vast majority of scientists are in agreement on what's going on.  Unfortunately, one party has made a habit of denying facts when they were inconvenient for corporate profits.

 Anyway I'm shocked how many of you out there probably own a smoky old polluting  2 cycle Detroit diesel in your old buses should I say shame on you or what I'm I suppose to think. Are you going to pull a John Kerry do as I say not as I do.

I think I'm going to take my smoky old diesel pickup for ride and enjoy the day before America implodes trying to save the world. Have a great day.

Quote from: luvrbus on February 18, 2021, 06:37:41 PM
Tulsa County Ok owned a electric MCI that just sold at auction,the bus never made a round trip without breaking down hauling prisoners from Tulsa to McAlester a 100 mile 1 way trip the old Blue Birds where sent to finish hauling the prisoners every trip

I thought MCI only announced their electric coaches in December 2019?  Was this an earlier generation product?

I have solar panels at my house that more than cover my electricity usage.  I made provisions to be able to install another 20 panels for an EV when I installed my current panels.

I have been looking at EVs for a few years.  I almost leased a Hyundai Ioniq EV when they had a deal that was $79 or $99 per month a while back.  I decided against it when I figured out that sales tax, registration, and road use fee would double my monthly cost.  It would have become my primary vehicle with my other vehicle used for range, or when I needed to haul something.

I am convinced my next vehicle in hopefully five years will either be an EV or a plug-in hybrid.

Quote from: tr206 on February 20, 2021, 12:40:57 PM
Anyway I'm shocked how many of you out there probably own a smoky old polluting  2 cycle Detroit diesel in your old buses should I say shame on you or what I'm I suppose to think. Are you going to pull a John Kerry do as I say not as I do.

It's all about scale, and this is a common argument put forward for those who oppose environmental regulations.  "Stop worrying about what the corporations are doing and focus on what *you* can do".  Reality is, it doesn't matter how green you are personally if the corporation down the street (or across the world) is releasing toxins and greenhouse gasses into the environment willy-nilly; their contribution is exponentially greater than yours.  This is a macro problem, ad hominem counters on the micro level are not a valid dismissal.

You could see this one becoming political and we are here time to lock it down

This topic is being locked to preserve everyone's health.   8)

Gary Hatt